“Mental Infrastructure”
May 14th, 2007At TPMcafe this morning, Daniel Gross is discussing his new book Pop! which argues, counter-intuitively, that the hand-wringing about “bubbles” in various industries is unwarranted, that there’s a relatively permanent residual “mental infrastructure”–what we anthropologists would rather call “culture”–that results from periods of overheated investment:
Physical infrastructure isn’t the only thing left behind after bubbles. During bubbles, a great deal of cash is spent building what I call “mental infrastructureâ€â€”convincing people to try new ways of doing business. Most of the pioneering Internet bubble-era companies failed as businesses. But they succeeded in making millions of people believe that it was safe, efficient, and desirable to complete transactions online. Post-bust innovators were thus able to tap into both a commercial physical infrastructure (near-universal broadband) and a huge installed base of customers. As a result, the best time to start an internet business wasn’t in 1998 and 1999, when venture capital money was plentiful and the NASDAQ offered a sure route to IPO riches. It was in 2002 or 2003, when investors were irrationally pessimistic about the internet, when the building blocks of internet businesses were dirt cheap, and when there was a massive, installed base of users to tap.
There is a rhetorical opening here which strikes me as an excellent opportunity for anthropologists. Certainly, as Gross points out in his discussion, bubbles are problematic for economists who are, by and large, deeply committed to a rational-actor theory of social life and to the orderly and efficient principles according to which markets are purported to work. But anthropologists have known for some time that markets work just like every other aspect of culture. Individual actors are asymmetrically prepared to operate in their own best interests. That is, participants are never equally informed, so their “rationality” is highly perspectival. Indeed, it is this very principle on which financial markets–and poker games–thrive.
When the dissemination of the capacity to both recognize and produce a communicative form (such as buying into a market) expands dramatically, we can argue that there has been some element of cultural transformation. In Gross’s terms, we have a larger “installed base of users.”
In the case of real-estate, this seems particularly poignant. Certainly, according to most statistics, home ownership is on the rise. Even if those numbers are substantially diminished by a real-estate bubble, rising interest rates and increased foreclosures, the number of people who imagine themselves–who inhabit the “mental infrastructure”–as home-owners will have risen. Indeed, anyone who has been through the house-buying process has likely developed more than a passing interest in the behavior of real estate markets, the meaning of interest rates, amortization, etc. An acquaintance, even just with the vocabulary of real-estate investment, probably results in lowered barriers to subsequent participation in the real-estate market, even if former buyers felt the burn of an overheated market. But home ownership is not exclusively–or even primarily–a financial decision. And as with any infrastructure, “mental infrastructure” (as culture, of course) requires substantial upkeep. Are there institutions arising that are committed to that task? Has there been a permanent change in the various stories we tell ourselves about what it means to be American that would make the “installed base of users” more durable in the real estate market than in, say, the Tulip market?
I haven’t read the book, but I wonder if part of the argument about bubbles being good for the economy is that it reduces the fundamental asymmetry in preparation for people entering the market. In that case, Gross is still adhering to a “rational-actor” theory in which this bigger base of “market users” is “good” because those market users are more likely to act rationally in sustaining the resulting (and newly stabilized) market.
Anthropologists who are interested in social justice issues, the behavior of markets, and cultural transformation would do well to take a look at what the discipline’s considerable strengths can offer to this discussion.
